SSerpixTennis Predictions
🎾 ATP WimbledonATP Wimbledon - Semi-finals🟢 Grass, Outdoor
M. McDonald
🎾 M. McDonald
USA · Age 31
WLWLL
2026: 9-13
vs
R. Carballes Baena
🎾 R. Carballes Baena
Spain · Age 33
WLWWL
2026: 1-1
Wednesday, 24 June 2026·12:00 CET
★ Our Pick · Match Winner

M. McDonald to Win

Our experts give M. McDonald a 71% win probability on grass.

1.44
Best Odds
💎 Bookmakers price M. McDonald to Win at 1.44 (implied 69.4%). Our experts give 71%, a fair price of 1.40 — an edge of 2.0 points.

Betting Predictions

Match Winner
M. McDonald to Win1.44
71% expert probability

Our experts give M. McDonald a 71% win probability on grass.

Implied 69%Select →
Match Winner
R. Baena to Win2.63
29% expert probability

Our experts give R. Baena a 29% win probability on grass.

Implied 38%Select →
🟢Total Games
Total Games Under 23.51.66
56% expert probability

Our experts make this 56% likely.

Implied 60%Select →
🟢Total Sets
Total Sets Under 2.51.54
62% expert probability

Our experts make this 62% likely.

Implied 65%Select →
First Set
M. McDonald wins 1st set1.52
61% expert probability

Our experts make this 61% likely.

Implied 66%Select →
Set Betting
M. McDonald 2-02.00
42% expert probability

Our experts' most likely scoreline.

Implied 50%Select →
Straight Sets
M. McDonald in straight sets2.10
44% expert probability

44% to win without dropping a set.

Implied 48%Select →
Games Handicap
M. McDonald -2.5 games1.75
57% expert probability

Games spread for the favourite (market price).

Implied 57%Select →

The Players

M. McDonald
🎾 M. McDonald
USA · Age 31

M. McDonald is a 31-year-old player from USA. Strongest on hard (57% career win rate).

2026 Record
9-13
Grass Career
36-30
Hard57% (268-206)
Clay33% (22-44)
Grass55% (36-30)
R. Carballes Baena
🎾 R. Carballes Baena
Spain · Age 33

R. Carballes Baena is a 33-year-old player from Spain. Strongest on clay (61% career win rate).

2026 Record
1-1
Grass Career
7-17
Hard42% (68-95)
Clay61% (460-291)
Grass29% (7-17)

Serpix Analysis

M. McDonald meets R. Carballes Baena at the Wimbledon on grass. Their head-to-head favours M. McDonald 1-0. Our experts make M. McDonald the favourite at 71% to win.

Why this pick

Medium

Head-to-Head Record

M. McDonald leads the series 1-0 across 1 meeting(s).

Medium

Grass-Court Form

M. McDonald has a 55% career win rate on grass (36-30).

Best Betting Odds

BookmakerM. McDonaldR. Baena
888Sport1.442.63

Head to Head

1
M. McDonald
1 meeting
0
R. Baena
29 Jan Quimper2 - 0M. McDonald

Recent Form

🎾 M. McDonald

22 Junvs F. Alves · Wimbledon2 - 1W
16 Junvs S. Mochizuki · Nottingham0 - 2L
14 Junvs N. Kjaer · Nottingham2 - 1W
6 Junvs N. Visker · Hertogenbosch0 - 2L
4 Junvs R. Hijikata · Birmingham0 - 2L

🎾 R. Baena

22 Junvs M. Ceban · Wimbledon2 - 0W
18 Junvs S. Ofner · Parma1 - 2L
17 Junvs S. Travaglia · Parma2 - 1W
16 Junvs M. Damas · Parma2 - 0W
14 Junvs J. Jong · Cattolica (Italy) - Qualification0 - 2L

Surface Performance & Set Betting

M. McDonald

Hard57% (268-206)
Clay33% (22-44)
Grass55% (36-30)

R. Baena

Hard42% (68-95)
Clay61% (460-291)
Grass29% (7-17)

Set Betting Probabilities

2-0 M. McDonald42%
2-1 M. McDonald23%
2-0 R. Baena18%
2-1 R. Baena17%
Over 2.5 Sets38%
Under 2.5 Sets62%

Predictions are our experts' estimates for informational purposes. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.